How to Read a Weather Forecast like a Data Analyst
Why 60% chance of rain doesn’t mean 60% of your day will be wet
Hey everyone,
One of the most common ways to encounter probabilities in our daily lives is through weather apps. And complaining about how they don't work has basically become a national hobby. So, let's dig a bit deeper into these probabilities actually mean.
The first misconception is thinking that 50% chance of rain means the same thing as flipping a coin. Like either it rains, or it doesn’t, right? Well, the percentage is actually a combination of the chance of raining AND the percentage of the area that will get rain.
So, 50% rain could mean:
50% chance of rain in the entire area,
100% chance of rain in half of the area,
Or something in between.
Confusing, huh? Well, let's get even one step further. Even if you know the chance of raining in your area, there is another important question you should ask: how much rain?
Let’s compare two scenarios:
80% chance of 0.01" of rain = you might not even notice it.
20% chance of 2" = it might cause floods, if it happens.
Only by combining the probability and the amount of rain can you make an inform decision, such as whether you bring the umbrella or not.
So here is the question for today: check your weather app and ask yourself... are you bringing your umbrella today?
See you next Wednesday!
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